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Weekly ETF Monitor for week ending 10 January 2020

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Jan 13, 2020

This week's highlights Asian equities dominated the top performing funds last week, with CNEW, ASIA, IKO and IAA all returning 3.5% or more. Australian shares also had a strong week with the S&P/ASX 200 reaching new all-time highs. DIV and ILC were the week’s best performing domestic equity funds. Global banks (BNKS), gold miners (GDX and MNRS) and a range of commodity funds were the biggest decliners for the week. Precious metals were mixed. Gold rallied to 6-year highs following Iran’s military action against U.S. assets, before pulling-back as tensions eased. ETFS Physical Gold (GOLD) finished the week 1.0% higher. ETFS Palladium (ETPMPD) soared 7.5% to new all-time highs, while platinum and silver declined. Crude oil spiked above US$65/bbl before dropping sharply. OOO declined 6.3% for the week. Total flows into domestically domiciled ETFs were $368m, while outflows totalled $72m. iShares Core MSCI World All Cap ETF (Hedged) (IHWL) saw the largest inflows for the week, followed by a range of equity, fixed income and commodity funds. Domestic equity funds IOZ and STW saw the bulk of the week’s outflows. VAS was the most traded fund last week, followed by SWT and IOZ. IHWL and GOLD saw above average volumes. ETFS Morningstar Global Technology ETF (TECH) returned 38.1% in 2019 and is already up 4.4% in 2020. TECH provides equally-weighted exposure to a diverse range of technology companies that have strong competitive advantages in their field and are attractively valued, as determined by Morningstar’s analyst ratings.

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Weekly ETF Monitor for week ending 13 December 2019

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Dec 17, 2019

This week's highlights Global and domestic property fell last week with six of the bottom ten performers all providing exposure to property. MVA, VAP and SLF all posted negative returns. Asia, emerging markets and some precious metals had a strong week on the back of positive trade talks. UBS IQ MSCI Asia APREX 50 Ethical ETF (UBP) was up 4.7% and ETFS Physical Palladium (ETPMPD) up 4.6% as the metal scaled to new highs, falling just short of US$2,000/oz. Flows for the week consisted of $303 Million of inflows and $8 Million of outflows. Majority of inflows were to IOZ, to the tune of $80 Million. Hybrid and international and domestic equity ETFs also saw a good proportion of inflows. IOZ, VAS, STW and AAA were the top traded ETFs for the week keeping up the trend for the year. ETFS Physical Palladium (ETPMPD) year-to-date has returned 59.1%. The precious metal has a wide range of industrial and commercial uses in areas such as dentistry, medical equipment, jewellery and electronics. But its biggest demand comes from the automotive industry where the metal is used in catalytic converters to control the emission of harmful exhaust gasses.

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Weekly ETF Monitor for week ending 6 December 2019

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Dec 10, 2019

This week's highlights Domestic equities declined last week with the S&P/ASX 200 posting its worst week since early October. Domestic ETFs VHY, SELF, IHD, MVW, RDV, QOZ and SYI were all amongst the week’s poorest performers. The top equity performers were China funds CNEW and CETF along with Japan fund IJP. Bearish equity funds (BBOZ and BEAR) and Australian dollar fund AUDS also posted strong gains. Precious metals pulled-back last week, with the exception of palladium. Crude oil rallied sharply. OOO returned 7.3% and was the week’s top performing fund. Currency hedged commodities (QCB and QAU) were also amongst the better performers. Total flows into domestically domiciled ETFs were $309m, while outflows totalled $112m. New entrant, VanEck Vectors Australian Subordinated Debt ETF (SUBD) saw the largest inflows for the week, followed by a diverse range of fixed income, equity and commodity funds. A200 and AAA saw the bulk of the week’s outflows. A200 was the most traded fund last week, followed by VAS and VGS. SUBD saw strong volume in-line with its flows. ETFS Physical Palladium (ETPMPD) has returned more than 50% year-to-date. Increasingly tight supply and growing demand, primarily from the auto industry, have seen palladium prices trending higher for most of the past four years. At US$1,880 per ounce, palladium is trading at all-time highs and is now at close to a 30% premium to the price of gold.

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India: Down But Not Out

Dec 09, 2019

Published: 5th December 2019 Product in Focus: ETFS Reliance India Nifty 50 ETF Key points: India’s economy has underlying strengths and over the past 12 years has become an economic powerhouse, jumping from the 11th to the 5th largest economy in the world. After a 2 year slow down, India’s outlook remains positive. RNAM forecasts GDP growth to recover towards 7% over the next 12-15 months. NDIA allows investors access to the Indian share market, a notoriously difficult region to invest, by tracking the performance of 50 of India’s leading blue-chip companies. India has been increasingly moving into the spotlight of many investors in recent years. Over the past 12 years India has jumped from the 11th to the 5th largest economy in the world and is likely to take 3rd position within a decade. This makes it difficult to ignore India when building a global equity portfolio. Further, the recent launch of ETFS Reliance India Nifty 50 ETF (ASX: NDIA), Australia’s first Indian-focused ETF, has provided investors with ready access to a market that was previously difficult to invest in. The case for India Structurally, India’s economy has underlying strengths that have enabled robust growth and provide a strong macro story. Demographics: with a median age of 28 years, India’s population is highly skewed towards young working-age people who drive both income and consumption. By 2030 India’s median age is forecast to rise to just 31, compared to 40 in the U.S. and 42 in China. Further, a dramatic urbanisation of the population is in progress, which will create a massive need for infrastructure investment across housing, transport, communications and utilities. Low debt levels: To this point Indian economic growth has not been excessively reliant on debt. Household leverage in India remains one of the lowest in the world, which presents a huge opportunity for sustained economic expansion. Strong domestic consumption: Nearly 60% of India’s GDP is driven by domestic private consumption, as compared to 40% in China. This provides India with a degree of protection against external demand shocks. Furthermore, India’s per capita spending is way below China and more in line with levels seen in China in the mid-2000s. Progressive reforms: India has undergone many reforms in the last 5 years. Most have been aimed at increasing compliance and transparency and removing red tape across the financial system. Longer-term, a stable and reform-focused regime should support an environment conducive to business and investment. Future Outlook While Indian growth has slowed over the past two years, the outlook remains positive. Reliance Nippon Life Asset Management forecasts GDP growth to recover towards 7% over the next 12-15 months. Key factors driving near-term growth include; Corporate tax cuts: India has recently reduced its effective corporate tax rate to 25.1% from over 30%. In addition, firms who set up new manufacturing units will enjoy an effective tax rate of 17.1%. This is expected to attract significant investment from foreign companies looking to access India’s domestic market and those looking to diversify away from China as uncertainty continues with regards to the global trade and tariff situation. Infrastructure spending: Government initiated infrastructure projects are a key driver of the Indian economy. It was recently announced that India will spend about $US 1.4 trillion over the next five years on projects including, for example, doubling the number of highways, airports and the capacity of ports, building 50 new metro systems in cities, electrifying and standardising the rail network and improving both rural irrigation and household access to piped water. Monetary policy: The RBI has cut policy rates by 1.35% over the past year to 5.15% to provide stimulus to the economy and counter the weakness seen in global demand. Low inventory levels: Inventory levels across the economy are well positioned to provide a favourable base for a recovery across the manufacturing sectors. Access to India The ETFS Reliance India Nifty 50 ETF offers Australian investors the ability to access the Indian share market via the ASX for the first time. NDIA tracks the Nifty50 Index, which is the primary benchmark for the Indian equity market. It not only provides a measure of the performance of 50 of India’s leading blue-chip companies, it also provides a representative picture of the entire Indian market. The 50 constituents account for 67% of overall Indian market capitalisation and 53% of total trading volume, as well as providing a broadly similar sector exposure to the wider market. Trailing returns Using India in a portfolio Investors looking to take a meaningful exposure to the Indian growth story should consider taking an exposure beyond broad emerging markets/Asia. India currently accounts for just 2.6% of global equity market capitalisation, despite having over 17% of the world’s population and 9.5% of the world’s GDP. In comparison, China, which is the most comparable country from a population perspective, currently accounts for 8.2% of global equity markets. [1] A tactical overweight to India would provide investors with a fairer reflection of India’s potential. While historical data does not present the entire picture of the Indian growth opportunity as it stands today, it is worthwhile investigating the impact that a heightened India exposure would have had on historic portfolio returns. To do so, we focus on the Asia ex Japan segment of world equity markets and compare the performance of the MSCI Asia ex Japan Index, which includes roughly a 10% allocation to India, to a portfolio comprised of 90% MSCI Asia ex Japan and 10% Nifty50 Index. The blended portfolio contains approximately a 19% India allocation. Cumulative returns over the past 20 years are shown in Chart 1. Over the full 20-year time series, the portfolio including the Nifty50 outperformed by 0.51% per annum, exhibited 0.5% per annum lower volatility and saw a 1% lower drawdown. By extension, risk-adjusted returns were also improved. Table Y summaries the portfolio risk and return characteristics over 3, 5, 10 and 20 years to give a picture of the contribution India would have made over a range of time horizons. In each case the over-weighting of India was positive for the portfolio from both a return and a risk perspective. Fund in Focus Name ETFS Reliance India Nifty 50 ETF ASX Code NDIA Management Fee 0.85%* Benchmark Nifty50 Index Inception Date 19 June 2019 Distributions Annual [1] Source: Bloomberg as at 30 November 2019. *Plus expense recoveries up to a maximum of 0.15% p.a.

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ESTX: Brexit Deal, Trade Deal, What’s New?

Dec 04, 2019

Published: 4 December 2019 Product in focus: ETFS EURO STOXX 50® ETF Key Points As the chance of a no-deal Brexit becomes less likely and the UK looks set to leave EU in the next three months, the uncertainty that’s been overshadowing the European market for the last three years may soon be over. With the U.S. and China signalling they’re making progress to end their trade disputes, this could also offer some reprieve for the Eurozone’s economy, which has been a key victim of the U.S.-China trade war. ETFS EURO STOXX 50® ETF (ETSX) provides an investment proxy for those who believe these uncertainties will soon be alleviated, as the underlying economy of the Eurozone is deeply tied to both geopolitical events. Brexit May Come Soon Since the referendum held in June 2016, Brexit has remained in murky waters. In the latest turn of events, the EU has agreed to grant the UK another extension for three-months, however, given the frustration expressed by many leading EU countries, we expect this to be the last extension. Solving the deadlock around the Irish boarder is presenting a significant challenge for the UK parliament and EU to agree on. As such the UK may end up leaving the EU without a withdrawal agreement. Nevertheless, once Brexit happens, with or without a deal, the Eurozone will have one of its biggest overhanging uncertainties removed. Brexit has not been a good showcase to inspire other Eurozone countries to follow suit. The result of the European Parliament election held in May showed that although the uprising right-wing parties have seized more seats than ever before, the parliament is still firmly controlled by the pro-EU forces, while the next EU Parliament election won’t happen until 2024. We therefore expect a smoother ride for the Eurozone going forward, with other countries attempting their own Brexit seeming unlikely. Trade Wars and Europe President Trump started a big trade war with China and a mini-trade war with India, whilst also threatening to place tariffs on auto parts from Europe and Japan, although he is yet to act on these threats. America’s trade wars have caused havoc to the global economy and have already begun to harm America’s own economy. Investors who expect to see the U.S. unwinding more of its tariffs may invest in the eurozone, as it’s a good proxy for improving international trades. So how much damage has the U.S. trade wars brought to the Eurozone? Despite the U.S. not directly imposing tariffs on goods from the EU, the Eurozone economy has been affected by decreased trade and capital flows. Exports made up 46% of the Eurozone bloc’s output in 2018, compared to 12% of the United States’ and 19% of China’s, according to the World Bank. Looking into Germany, the biggest economy within the EU, the manufacturing PMI of the country has dropped from the 63.3 in December 2017 to the most recent 41.9 in October 2019, indicating that the manufacturing sector has been weakening for a while and is now in the contraction zone. Trade Talks Begin to Yield Results The most recent development of the U.S.-China trade war was a positive one. Following the meeting between the U.S. trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, both the U.S. and China had signalled the two countries are close to reaching a “phase one” trade deal. A resolution to the trade wars could see a boost to the economy of the Eurozone given their reliance on and recent decline in international trade. Fund in Focus: ETFS EURO STOXX 50® ETF (ESTX) ESTX is designed to provide a blue-chip representation of super sector leaders in the eurozone. ESTX can be used as a tool for a tactical play for investors who believe the day for Brexit and the U.S.-China trade war resolutions are just around the corner. Name ETFS EURO STOXX 50® ETF ASX Code ESTX Management Fee 0.35% Benchmark EURO STOXX 50® Index Inception Date 19/07/2016 Distribution Frequency Semi-Annual

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Weekly ETF Monitor for week ending 29 November 2019

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Dec 03, 2019

This week's highlights ETFS S&P Biotech ETF (CURE) was last week’s top performing ETF, returning 6.5%. Domestic resource funds also fared well, with MVR, OZR and QRE all posting strong gains. Australian property funds SLF and VAP were also amongst the top performers. China and emerging markets funds (CNEW and EMKT) declined for the week. Palladium surged to new all-time highs, with ETFS Physical Palladium (ETPMPD) returning 4.1%. Other precious metals pulled-back last week. Crude oil declined, with OOO falling 4.5% and global energy company fund FUEL down 1.9%. Total flows into domestically domiciled ETFs were $171m, while outflows totalled $51m. IOZ and GOLD saw the largest inflows for the week, followed by HBRD and MVW. Cash fund AAA saw the bulk of the outflows for the week. AAA was the most traded fund last week, followed by VAS and STW. VSO, VHY and GOLD saw above average volumes. ETFS S&P Biotech ETF (CURE) has gained more than 22% over the past two months. A raft of FDA approvals and some high profile acquisitions by large pharmaceutical companies have spurred a recovery across the biotechnology sector following a lacklustre year thus far. Further FDA activity is expected over the coming months.

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