Jun 22, 2017
Palladium on the move? ETFS Physical Palladium (ETPMPD) In this week’s ETF Securities trade idea we examine the drivers behind palladium’s recent price run (up 30% YTD) and look at whether it has further to go. We identify four key points to consider: Palladium’s major use is in autocatalysts used in emission reduction equipment in gasoline cars and its main suppliers are South Africa and Russia Demand for gasoline vehicles is on the rise in key markets such as China and India and diesel demand is declining globally Electric vehicle demand is yet to reach sufficient scale to impact palladium prices significantly Speculative positioning in palladium is high, but not excessive Palladium is a metal used mainly in pollution abatement equipment. Approximately 80% of palladium is used in autocatalysts to reduce the emission of carbon dioxide and nitrogen oxides. There are higher loadings of palladium in gasoline cars than there are in diesel cars. Diesel cars have higher loadings of platinum (which performs a similar role to palladium, but its more suited to diesel engines which operate at lower temperatures). About 40% of platinum demand comes from autocatalysts. About 40% of mine supply of palladium comes from South Africa and another 40% comes from Russia. Historically, the Russian government had been selling its stockpiles of the metal, but there has not been any metal from this source since 2013. There is no transparent data on whether the Russian government has more stocks to sell. Palladium has appreciated by 30.0% in US dollar terms in 2017-to-date and, as shown in Figure 1, is approaching parity with platinum for the first time since 2002. Consumer preferences have tilted towards gasoline vehicles away from diesel, which accounts for much of the rise in demand for palladium relative to platinum. The automobile growth in markets like China, India and other emerging markets is a key area of strength. These are generally gasoline markets. These countries are also tightening emission standards which will increase the loading requirements of palladium. Established diesel markets like Europe are not seeing automobile growth on the same scale and regulatory fall-out from the emissions scandal and technological advancements have further tilted demand away from diesel. Electric vehicles (EVs) are growing rapidly from a small base. While electric vehicles account for less than 1% of global sales today, consensus estimates that it will rise to 4% by 2025. Most EVs do not contain palladium and so the growth of this type of vehicle will reduce a source of demand. We don’t think that the growth of EVs will materially change the supply-demand balance for palladium in the next couple of years, but will do as the market continues to grow. Speculative positioning in the futures market is elevated, as shown in Figure 2. Net longs are above their 5 year historic average but are still well below 2013-2014 levels when concerns about mine supply were aggravated by strikes in South Africa. Supply is subject to abrupt changes. Mine closures due to strike activity, embargoes of exports from certain countries and recycling dependency on other metals are some of the examples of factors that cause supply disruptions. While changes in demand can be quite surprising, as we have seen with the rotation toward palladium (gasoline engines) from platinum (diesel engines) in light of the emission scandal, generally changes in demand are more gradual. Investors wishing to add palladium exposure to their portfolios may consider using ETFS Physical Palladium (ASX Code: ETPMPD), the only ETP in Australia providing investors with physical exposure to the metal. ETPMPD offers holders a direct entitlement to palladium vaulted at HSBC in Switzerland with a management fee of 0.49% per annum.
Jun 16, 2017
The S&P/ASX 200 rebounded last week, posting a 1.7% gain despite declining commodity prices. Healthcare, real estate and financials were the leading sectors. The three top performing ETFs for the week were all domestic property funds (SLF, VAP and MVA). Globally, the S&P 500 posted a modest gain despite further declines in the technology sector. The Fed Reserve raised rates for the second time this year. The Australian dollar ended the week 1.3% higher, pushing back above US 76c for the first time since early April. Commodity markets were mostly weaker last week with precious metals declining in the wake of higher US interest rates. WTI crude fell to a new year-to-date low on higher OPEC output in May. The Australian ETF market saw inflows of A$79m and outflows of A$28m from domestically domiciled ETFs. The largest inflows were into broad-based domestic equity funds (QOZ and STW) and the largest outflows were from BetaShares Australian High Interest Cash ETF (AAA).
Jun 09, 2017
Global equity markets were mostly in the red last week, with former FBI director James Comey's testimony and the British election weighing on the market. The S&P/ASX 200 declined by 1.9%, its worst weekly performance of the year. The S&P 500 ended the week down 0.3% and the Nasdaq 100 dropped 2.4%, following wide-spread selling in the technology sector on Friday. Bearish domestic equity ETFs (BBOZ and BEAR) were amongst the top performing funds for the week, whilst domestic property ETFs (SLF, MVA and VAP) were amongst the poorest performers. The Australian dollar ended the week 1.1% higher, pushing back above US 75c. Pound sterling dropped over 1% following the British election outcome. WTI crude dropped 3.8% following news of higher than expected US inventories. Iron ore fell by 5.9% on slowing Chinese growth. ETFS Physical Palladium ETF (ETPMPD) was the top performing fund for the second week running, returning 5.7% for the week and 27.2% year-to-date. Demand for the metal, mainly from the auto industry, has spiked recently pushing prices to 16 year highs. The Australian ETF market saw inflows of A$85m and outflows of A$5m from domestically domiciled ETFs.
Jun 07, 2017
Silver lining investment theme Trade idea – ETFS Physical Silver ETF (ETPMAG) Gold vs silver ratio – indicates that silver is undervalued o Has averaged 62.63 since 1980 (as of 24 May 2017) o Currently widened to 73.49 (as of 24 May 2017) o 1x standard deviation above the long term average (as of 22 May 2017) Positive economics - a combination of higher inflation, a weakening US dollar (in first half of 2017) and improving manufacturing growth is likely to see silver prices trading higher. Is silver trading below fair value? Historically the ratio difference between gold and silver has been an interesting investment indicator of market direction. The gold vs silver ratio graph below identifies a potential trading theme. The graph indicates that when the ratio falls below the historic average line it could show gold as being below fair value relative to silver. On the reverse, when the ratio trades above the historical ratio average, like it is now, silver could be trading below fair value relative to gold. Positive price movements The Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (“PMI”) is sitting at a current high of 54.4, previously unseen since March 2011. In our view, the high PMI may indicate a potential increase in manufacturing activity and therefore a further potential positive move for the silver price in 2017. However, it should be noted that if we saw a global slowdown in manufacturing or a hawkish view from the US FED, this could potentially have a negative impact on the current price of silver and impact the gold vs silver ratio trading theme. Increasing demand Silver has a wide and growing range of uses globally, which could help further stimulate demand and create a positive move in the silver price; examples of silver’s growing uses include printed circuit board manufacturing, healthcare and the production of solar panels. ETF Securities research team give silver a 2017 fair value level of US$21/oz – for further information visit the ETF Securities Research Blog.
Jun 02, 2017
The S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.6% last week following a bounce on Friday on strong economic data out of the US and a firming expectation of a Fed rate rise this month. The S&P 500 ended the week up 1.0%, while the Nikkei 225 rose 2.5%. Three Japanese equity ETFs (IJP, UBJ and HJPN) were amongst the top performers for the week. The Australian dollar ended the week flat after recovering some lost ground on Friday. The euro and Japanese yen both had strong weeks, gaining against the US dollar. The Chinese renminbi jumped 0.7%, posting its fourth consecutive weekly gain against the US dollar. WTI crude dropped 4.3%, while gold gained 0.8%. Palladium gained 7.3% and posted a new 3-year high on increasing demand from the auto sector. ETFS Physical Palladium ETF (ETPMPD) was the top performing fund for the week, returning 7.4%. The Australian ETF market saw inflows of A$185m and outflows of A$4m from domestically domiciled ETFs. The largest inflows were into SPRD S&P/ASX 200 Fund (STW) and BetaShares Australian High Interest Cash ETF (AAA).